Wisdom of crowds: much ado about nothing
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract The puzzling idea that the combination of independent estimates magnitude a quantity results in very accurate prediction, which is superior to any or, at least, most individual known as wisdom crowds. Here we use federal reserve bank Philadelphia’s survey professional forecasters database confront statistical and psychophysical explanations this phenomenon. Overall find data do not support proposed In particular, positive correlation between variance (or diversity) crowd error disagreement with some interpretations diversity prediction theorem. addition, opposition predictions augmented quincunx model, skew offers no information about error. More importantly, beats all individuals less than 2% forecasts 70% forecasts, means there fair chance an selected random will perform better crowd. These contrast starkly performance non-natural crowds composed unbiased beat practically forecasts. moderate advantage real-world over its members does justify ado wisdom, likely product selective attention fallacy.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1742-5468']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/abfa1f